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The report by JDC and Jubilee Research focuses on the 42 countries listed under the HIPC initiative (of which only 24 have actually reached decision points yet). In particular it must be noted it does not cover the 52 countries identified within the Jubilee 2000 campaign.
The calculations are divided into two parts:-
Please bear in mind that these calculations are of necessity approximations establishing rough orders of magnitude.
The estimates are based on a standard econometric model which make assumptions about the relationship between growth, poverty and investment. These same models are used/accepted by the UK DFID.
These investment levels, along with the GDP enable the necessary investment to be calculated for each country. Part of this investment can be financed b y internal savings (taken from the World Bank Development indicators). The remainder requires external financing, such as 'Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)', workers remittances etc.
The results are shown in table 1 of the report.
Health and Education
Education. The cost of providing free primary education for all children has been based on estimates made by UNICEF. UNICEF essentially calculated the number of children needing 'new places' to achieve 100% of education, and then calculating the cost based on existing country costs. The country data is shown in table 2 of the report.
The figures basically show that
The estimates for healthcare are based on a study by the 'Global Commission on Macroeconomics and health' chaired by Professor Jeffery Sachs. The commission identified key interventions required to meet the MDGs
Clean water and sanitation
Current estimates are that 1 billion people are denied clean water whilst 3 billion lack adequate sanitation!
Target 10 of the MDGs is to halve the number of people without access to safe drinking water. 2 million children die each year from water related diseases!
Water Vision 21 , has estimated the cost of providing safe water and sanitation as (these are additional, one off costs)
Target 11 - to achieve a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers.
The World Bank has estimated that upgrading slum areas in developing countries would cost between 0.2% and 0.5% of GDP. When the costs of investment in infrastructure is taken into account these figures increase to 1% to 2% of GDP. Using the lower figure (since the MDG is limited to 100Million) of 1%, the cost of meeting this goal is calculated at $1.7bn/a
Overall Picture/ Summary for Goals 2,4,5,6 -Health and Education
The calculations (above) indicate the cost of providing the services necessary to meet the MDGs on a country by country basis. To pay for these services, countries can use tax revenues and currently receive grants (aid).